State of the Race: National Board of Review

What is the National Board of Review? Wikipedia tells us that this is an organization, starting in 1908, made up of critics, film enthusiasts, academics, and filmmakers in the New York Metropolitan area. Despite having “National” in name, the Board is rather regional and has only about 100 members cast ballots for nominees and winners in various categories. So… in terms of overlap to what the Academy does, it’s limited, and shows more correlation than causation. The main point, in terms of the Oscar race, is that the NBR is the first critical body to announce its annual awards. And it’s always fun to have news.

Continue reading “State of the Race: National Board of Review”

State of the Race: Film Independent Spirit Awards

Happy Thanksgiving! We give thanks to never ending coverage of the lead up to the Oscars. Our awards cornucopia adds the nominations for the Film Independent Spirit Awards, which came out this week on November 21, 2017. Huzzah.

This is the second award domino to fall (after the Gotham Award nominations), but is similarly unconnected to the actual industry. The Spirit Awards are given by Film Independent, a nonprofit arts organization supporting independent films and filmmakers, for “independent” movies made for under $20 million. Prestige arms of big studios still get in here, like Fox Searchlight, Paramount Vintage, and Sony Pictures Classics. But also, big prestige films that win Oscars get celebrated here too – four out of the last five Best Picture winners were also winners here: The Artist (2011), 12 Years a Slave (2013), Birdman (2014), Spotlight (2015) and Moonlight (2016). And they sort of steal Oscar thunder too – the Independent Spirit Awards are usually held the night before the Oscars. This year, they’ll have Nick Kroll and John Mulaney (of Oh Hello fame) hosting. Fun.

Statistics

Before the nominations, the statistics – the Spirits improve from the Gothams (35% prediction to Best Picture) with a 44% overall prediction for a Best Picture nomination (taken from 2009 onward, since that was the year that the BP field expanded from five). There have been 18 Academy Award nominated films out of 41 Spirit nominations. Taken year to year, the full BP slate averages about 2.25 Spirit films a year, including two last year with Moonlight (the Spirit winner) and Manchester by the Sea. Some other categories have less success – Best Director is only about 29%, but every Spirit winner has been a nominated Director since ’09. Best Actor is 29%, Best Actress increases to 44%, Supporting Actor is 28%, and Best Supporting Actress is 20%.

So there is some correlation – it averages out to at least one Spirit nominee in all of these categories, and there are Oscar winners in the bunch with Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea, 2016), Brie Larson (Room, 2015), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash, 2014), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave, 2013) and director Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist, 2011) among many others.

Nominations

Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Florida Project
The Rider

Best Director
Sean BakerThe Florida Project
Jonas CarpignanoA Ciambra
Luca GuadagninoCall Me by Your Name
Jordan PeeleGet Out
Benny & Josh SafdieGood Time
Chloe ZhaoThe Rider

Best Actress
Salma HayekBeatriz at Dinner
Frances McDormandThree Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot RobbieI, Tonya
Saoirse RonanLady Bird
Shinobu TerajimaOh Lucy!
Regina WilliamsLife and nothing more

Best Actor
Timothee ChalametCall Me by Your Name
Harris DickinsonBeach Rats
James FrancoThe Disaster Artist
Daniel KaluuyaGet Out
Robert PattinsonGood Time

Best Supporting Actress
Holly HunterThe Big Sick
Allison JanneyI, Tonya
Laurie MetcalfLady Bird
Lois SmithMarjorie Prime
Taliah Lennice WebsterGood Time

Best Supporting Actor
Nnamdi AsomughaCrown Heights
Armie HammerCall Me by Your Name
Barry KeoghanThe Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sam RockwellThree Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Benny SafdieGood Time

Other Categories

Robert Altman Award
Mudbound

John Cassavetes Awards
Dayveon
A Ghost Story
Life and nothing more
Most Beautiful Island
The Transfiguration

Best First Feature
Columbus
Ingrid Goes West
Menashe
Oh Lucy!
Patti Cake$

Best Screenplay
Greta GerwigLady Bird
Azazel JacobsThe Lovers
Martin McDonaghThree Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Mike WhiteBeatriz at Dinner

Best First Screenplay
Kris AvedisianDonald Cried
Emily V. Gordon & Kumail NanjianiThe Big Sick
Ingrid JungermannWomen Who Kill
KogonadaColumbus
David Branson Smith & Matt SpicerIngrid Goes West

Best Cinematography
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Columbus
Beach Rats
Call Me by Your Name
The Rider

Best Editing
Good Time
Call Me by Your Name
The Rider
Get Out
I, Tonya

Best International Film
BPM (Beats Per Minute) – France
A Fantastic Woman – Chile
I Am Not a Witch – Zambia
Lady Macbeth – United Kingdom
Loveless – Russia

Best Documentary
The Departure
Faces Places
Last Men in Aleppo
Motherland
Quest

Multiple Nominations:
6 – Call Me by Your Name
5 – Get Out, Good Time
4 – Lady Bird, The Rider
3 – I Tonya, Columbus
2 – The Florida Project, The Big Sick, Beatriz at Dinner, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Ingrid Goes West, Beach Rats, Oh Lucy!, Life and nothing more

Of Note

Call Me by Your Name is getting the nominations it should – a favorite coming out of the film festivals, it was expected to dominate these independent award nominations. So it’s good for its chances at Oscar that it is doing as well as it is here.

After momentum at the Gothams, both Jordan Peele (Director/Screenplay) and most excitedly Daniel Kaluuya (Actor) continue to pick up nominations. Get Out is a genre movie, so it had a steep hill to climb to Oscar plaudits. The movie already can’t be denied from a financial perspective, as it made bank from a modest budget – now it seems like it also can’t be denied from a critical perspective. Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic is one thing, but showing up on these nomination lists keeps this February movie in the spotlight, which is a good thing.

Get used to what I’m dubbing the “Triumvirate of Moms” in Best Supporting Actress – Holly Hunter, Allison Janney, and Laurie Metcalf are all playing mothers that keep hitting the same award shows. I expect them to keep showing up until Oscar night… when three moms enter… and one mom leaves…

The Rider looks interesting and got nominations across the board, but this is a case of Spirit nominations only – the movie doesn’t screen until 2018 and won’t be eligible. Similarly, Good Time, a critical favorite, is being lauded here and would be eligible for Oscar, but seems just like an indie hit, and not an Academy movie.

Hopeful Oscar Nominations (in my opinion):
Best Picture – Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Lady Bird, maybe The Florida Project
Best Director – Luca Guadagnino, Jordan Peele, maybe Sean Baker
Best Actress – Frances McDormand, Saoirse Ronan, maybe Margot Robbie
Best Actor – Timothee Chalamet, maybe Daniel Kaluuya and James Franco
Best Supporting Actress – Holly Hunter, Allison Janney, Laurie Metcalf
Best Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell, Armie Hammer

Interesting Omissions:

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri for Best Picture – really interesting. Both here and at the Gothams, Three Billboards was snubbed for Best Picture after being the audience award winner at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF). But Frances, Rockwell and McDonagh got kudos here. Hmm.

An unfortunate one here that The Big Sick didn’t get in for Best Picture. Emily and Kumail were nominated for writing, which is great, and Hunter is holding it down in acting. I just really like that movie.

Greta Gerwig for Best Director – another case of a lot of love all over (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay) but GG, a former Spirit nominee for Greenberg and indie queen, missed out on this one.

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) and Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me) for Best Supporting Actor – some Oscar front runners missed out here, with Armie replacing Stuhlbarg for the same movie. I don’t think Dafoe is in trouble as a lot of the Spirit nominees here are long shots for Oscar.

Mudbound gets the backhanded compliment of a special award, but nothing competitive – exactly like the special jury prize for the cast from the Gotham Awards. Interesting how Netflix’s big play keeps getting left of the normal categories.

State of the Race: Best Documentary Feature

An early glimpse of the Best Documentary Feature category has presented itself in the form of the Producer’s Guild of America nominations. While the rest of the PGA nominations aren’t announced until January 5th, the documentary nominations are released in November. They are:

Chasing Coral (Netflix)
City of Ghosts (Amazon Prime)
Cries from Syria (HBO)
Earth: One Amazing Day (in theaters)
Jane (in theaters)
Joshua: Teenager vs. Superpower (Netflix)
The Newspaperman: The Life and Times of Ben Bradlee (HBO)

City of Ghosts – 2017 (image: imdb)

All these films are eligible, and on the “short” list (170 docs) for the Academy except The Newspaperman. Every other documentary should be happy for this bit of news. Ben Bradlee is being portrayed by Tom Hanks in The Post which is sure to clean up on nominations next year at the Oscars. If I’m picking a lock to be nominated out of this group it’s probably Jane. City of Ghosts and Cries from Syria seem like your usually Academy bait, but Jane just looks too good.

Happy watching! And be sure to check back in for more articles in our ongoing State of the Race series as awards season heats up.

State of the Race: Best Animated Feature Film

As a regular contributor to The Media By Us, I try to do my part to keep my ear to the ground regarding Oscar nominations. But I’m not nearly as good at tracking festival news or regular blog and podcast updates. What I CAN do is pay attention to the primary source.

This past Thursday, the Academy released the list of 26 movies that were submitted for consideration for best Animated Feature Film. The list includes movies that haven’t met the requirements for official nomination (running in an LA theater) but are included nonetheless.

Here is the list of movies:
The Big Bad Fox & Other Tales
Birdboy: The Forgotten Children
The Boss Baby

(Dreamworks Animation, 2017)

The Breadwinner
Captain Underpants The First Epic Movie
Cars 3
Cinderella the Cat
Coco
Despicable Me 3
The Emoji Movie
Ethel & Ernest
Ferdinand
The Girl without Hands
In This Corner of the World

(Mappa, 2016)

The Lego Batman Movie
The Lego Ninjago Movie
Loving Vincent
Mary and the Witch’s Flower
Moomins and the Winter Wonderland
My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea
Napping Princess
A Silent Voice
Smurfs: The Lost Village
The Star
Sword Art Online: The Movie – Ordinal Scale
Window Horses The Poetic Persian Epiphany of Rosie Ming

This tMbU member has only seen one of the above selected movies, but if I had to vote, The Lego Batman Movie would definitely get my vote.

State of the Race: The Gotham Independent Film Nominations

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(image: Filmmaker Magazine)

As we all know, Oscar season is a year-round affair. The first domino dropped on October 19th, with the first film award nominations coming – these were for the Gotham Independent Film Awards. These are given annually from the Independent Filmmaker Project (IFP) “the largest membership organization in the United States dedicated to independent film” and the awards were founded in 1991.

A group of people decide on the nominations and awards, limiting the scope to films that could be considered independent – so big budget movies and big studio ones are ineligible. So we wouldn’t expect to see Dunkirk or Wonder Woman here. But independent film has dominated the Oscars for the last 20 years anyway – the last four years have been indie winners for Best Picture, for 12 Years a Slave (2013), Birdman (2014), Spotlight (2015) and Moonlight (2016) – all of which were nominated for Best Feature in the Gothams.

Let’s show the actual nominees first and then see what it means:

Continue reading “State of the Race: The Gotham Independent Film Nominations”

TMBU 100% Correct Good-Time Family Fun Emmy Predictions

We love Awards shows here. And we are incredibly accurate (edit: not true). Both of those apply to the 2017 Emmy Awards, presented on Sunday September 17th for the “best” TV out there, premiering from June 2016 to May 2017-ish (so no Game of Thrones). So we feel obligated to post here for posterity’s sake our predictions for who/what is going to win (and who/what we think should win). As always, we have TJ and David posting their truth. Other members of TMBU did not return our snapchats.

COMEDY CATEGORIES

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Kate McKinnon (image: CNN)

Best Supporting Actress:
WILL WIN – David/TJ – Kate McKinnon (SNL)
SHOULD WIN – TJ – Kate McKinnon (SNL), David – Anna Chlumsky (Veep)

Alec Baldwin (image: Hollywood Reporter)

Best Supporting Actor:
WILL WIN – David/TJ – Alec Baldwin (SNL)
SHOULD WIN – TJ – Alec Baldwin (SNL), David – Tony Hale (Veep)

http://www.indiewire.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/veep-season-4-episode-9-julia-louis-dreyfus.jpg
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (image: Indie Wire)

Best Actress:
WILL WIN – David/TJ – Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
SHOULD WIN – David/TJ – Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

http://www.indiewire.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/atl_102_0898d.jpg?w=780
Donald Glover (image: Indie Wire)

Best Actor:
WILL WIN – David/TJ – Donald Glover (Atlanta)
SHOULD WIN – TJ – Aziz Ansari (Master of None), David – Donald Glover (ATL)

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Veep (image: Daily Motion)

Best Comedy Series:
WILL WIN – David/TJ – Veep
SHOULD WIN – TJ – Master of None, David – Atlanta

DRAMA CATEGORIES

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Millie Bobby Brown (image: Fan Pop)

Best Supporting Actress:
WILL WIN – TJ – Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things), David – Thandie Newton (Westworld)
SHOULD WIN – David/TJ – Millie Bobby Brown (ST)

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John Lithgow (image: Mashable)

Best Supporting Actor:
WILL WIN – David/TJ – John Lithgow (The Crown)
SHOULD WIN – TJ – Jeffrey Wright (Westworld), David – David Harbour (Stranger Things)

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Elisabeth Moss (image: Variety)

Best Actress:
WILL WIN – TJ – Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), David – Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
SHOULD WIN – TJ – Elisabeth Moss (HT), David – Evan Rachel Wood (WW)

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Sterling K. Brown (image: Gold Derby)

Best Actor:
WILL WIN – David/TJ – Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
SHOULD WIN – TJ – Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), David – Sterling K. Brown (TIU)

https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/stranger-things.jpg?w=670&h=377&crop=1
Stranger Things (image: Variety)

Best Drama Series:
WILL WIN – TJ – Stranger Things, David – Westworld
SHOULD WIN – David/TJ – Stranger Things

And there you have it. One of us will be 100% correct. Here are the only differences that could spell the difference and elicit humiliation for the loser.

Best Supporting Actress (Drama) – Millie Bobby Brown (TJ) vs. Thandie Newton (David)
Best Actress (Drama) – Elisabeth Moss (TJ) vs. Evan Rachel Wood (David)
Best Series (Drama) – Stranger Things (TJ) vs. Westworld (David)

Emmy Nominations: Comedy and Drama Series

(Image: The Hollywood Reporter)

Welcome to our Emmy predictions chat with your favorite awards-chasers, David and TJ. We’re splitting up the work into a couple different conversations to cover the major acting and series categories. Check out Supporting Acting and Lead Acting we’ve already done… Today we’re looking at the big ones – Best Comedy Series and Best Drama Series

TJ: Best Comedy and Best Drama… The awards people would be waiting for if the Emmys were more like the Academy Awards.

David: wut.

TJ: …Exactly. WHODYA PICK DAVID!?!

Best Comedy SERIES

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Atlanta (FX) (Image: AV Club)

Last Year’s Nominees:
Veep (Winner)
Black-ish
Master of None
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

David’s Picks:
Atlanta
Veep
Black-ish
Master of None
Transparent
Silicon Valley
Catastrophe

TJ’s Picks:
Atlanta
Veep
Black-ish
Master of None
Transparent
Silicon Valley
Modern Family

David: Of these, all are eligible to come back. You and I have a lot of overlap in shows coming back – we have Black-ish, Master of None, Silicon Valley and Transparent. We both dropped Kimmy.

TJ: I didn’t really get that to begin with. That show is okay and all. Seems to me it’s carried by it’s supporting cast. Never blew me away like the others did.

David: I liked the first season, but I felt like it wore out its welcome from the funny premise. So with the open slot, you kept the rambling corpse of Modern Family and I took a wild and brave shot at Catastrophe.

So TJ… Why do you hate hope?

TJ: Because the last time Modern Family didn’t get nominated was last decade. MOVE BITCH GET OUT THE WAY.

David: That is true for the zero-th season of Modern Family because every single season has been nominated. I went for Catastrophe – with Carrie Fisher’s work on the show being some of the last work she did, I think that show might get a bump – it got a writing nomination last year. Who knows… I’m thoroughly out of the way now.

TJ: Finally…

David: We both have Atlanta and Veep here – both vying for the win. What show do you think is going to win for best comedy?

TJ: Right now? Atlanta. It did so well through last season and Donald Glover is on fire. Veep could definitely pull it off though. I kind of predict them to be my pick come ceremony time.

David: I’m in the same boat – I think Veep will win, but I think this has been the weakest season. I think most still love the show, but I’d be pretty disappointed if Atlanta didn’t win, I’ll be honest.

https://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/vulture/2017/05/16/16-master-of-none-dev-arnold.w710.h473.jpg
Master of None (Netflix) (Image: Vulture)

TJ: Talking about hope, my vote would be for Master of None. My prediction, however, is Atlanta, at the moment. And I’d be perfectly happy if Atlanta won the night.

David: I just finished Master of None recently – a great season with some outstanding episodes in there. What nominee beside our sole difference (Modern Family, Catastrophe) do you think is the most vulnerable?

TJ: Silicon Valley? It seemed to have the least exciting season. And the lack of history, or maybe pedigree, might make it liable for the boot.

David: This morning I had Silicon Valley out… But I put it back in – when I think back on it, I’d much rather watch Silicon Valley than Veep. It’s just more entertaining to me. I might guess Transparent actually… Feels like it’s losing its luster.

But that’s crazy. It’ll never not be nominated.

TJ: Yea…

Best Drama Series

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The Crown (Netflix) (Image: Hypable)

Last Year’s Nominees:
The Americans
Better Call Saul
Homeland
House of Cards
Mr. Robot
Game of Thrones (Winner)
Downton Abbey

David’s Picks:
The Crown
Stranger Things
This Is Us
The Americans
The Handmaid’s Tale
Better Call Saul
The Leftovers

TJ’s Picks:
The Crown
Stranger Things
This Is Us
The Americans
The Handmaid’s Tale
Better Call Saul
Westworld

David: Of these shows, Downton Abbey has concluded, and Game of Thrones is premiering too late for the 2017 Emmys.

TJ: I’ve only got two returning. What about you?

David: Only two here as well. This feels like the year of great new dramas. We share Americans and Better Call Saul returning.

TJ: Sadly, I feel like the winner of this category might be the least kept secret of the Emmys.

David: I do too. I feel like The Crown is gonna take it, and it’s probably the least interesting of the shows we have here (although I did like it). We share all but one nom – you have Westworld, where I went with The Leftovers. Tell me why Westworld is going to make it, where other Sci-Fi shows have not.

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Westworld (HBO) (Image: HBO)

TJ: Yea, I liked The Leftovers plenty. But no more or less than Westworld. I also think Westworld is more likely to fill the void left by GoT in the hearts of voters. HBO is also more likely to throw their backing with the show of the future.

David: Good point. I just think that the Westworld cultural phenomenon was so long ago. Sometimes, distance with a show makes the flaws more pronounced. I think The Leftovers finishing up has dominated the stage at the point where Emmy voters are turning in ballots.

TJ: Perhaps.

David: We both think The Crown is gonna win – so let’s close this out. which other show winning would make you the happiest? And which of your slate do you feel is the most vulnerable of missing out on a nomination?

TJ: One: Stranger Things, and two: Stranger Things. That’s not a great feeling, but it’s the only one of my picks that I don’t have a ton of confidence in. Maybe Better Call Saul, but the acting in that show is just too good.

David: Good picks – I’d love if Stranger Things won, but my world would be completely rocked if The Leftovers won – last chance, and such an idiosyncratic treat every week. Most vulnerable… ehh… Maybe The Americans – it came out of nowhere last year, and Emmy history is littered with one-hit wonders that vanish just as fast…

That does it for our main category predictions – we’ll figure out on Wednesday July 13th who comes out on top. And who comes out in the upside-down…

TJ: Sounds good.

http://assets1.ignimgs.com/2016/07/07/strangerthingsthumb1jpg-6ab18a_1280w.jpg
Stranger Things (Netflix) (Image: IGN)

~fin~

Well this has been The Media By Us award-chasing the Emmys, looking at our definitive 100% correct predictions for Best Comedy and Drama Series. Check back after 7/13 to see who won!

Emmy Predictions: Lead Acting

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(Image: The Hollywood Reporter)

Welcome to our Emmy predictions chat with your favorite awards-chasers, David and TJ. We’re splitting up the work into a couple different conversations to cover the major acting and series categories. In the end, we’ll tally up our predictions on July 13th, when the nominations are announced. Today we’re looking at lead acting in a Comedy and Drama. 

TJ: Putting together these picks was tough.

David: It was… A lot of last years’ nominees were pretty deserving. And there are SO many new shows.

TJ: Yep. The streaming services continue to step up their game. Kick it off with Lead Actress in a Comedy Series?

David: Let’s kick it off with just that.

Continue reading “Emmy Predictions: Lead Acting”

Emmy Predictions: Supporting Acting

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(Image: The Hollywood Reporter)

David: Welcome to our Emmy predictions chat with your favorite awards-chasers, David and TJ. We’re splitting up the work into a couple different conversations to cover the major acting and series categories. Today we’re looking at supporting acting in a Comedy and Drama.

TJ: Yes. Yes we are.

David: In the end, we’ll tally up our predictions on July 13th, when the nominations are announced. Whoever wins is the better person, pretty much.

TJ: We split the Oscars predictions, right? You won the nominations game and I won when it counted?

David: I guess you could look at it that way.

TJ: Or you could be wrong. ANYWAYS…

David: We’ll kick it off then.

Continue reading “Emmy Predictions: Supporting Acting”

And Then There Were Ten: 2008, The Indie Wildcard

And Then There Were Ten – in which our intrepid hero goes back and expands the Academy Award Best Picture nominations to ten nominations, and goes about filling those hypothetical slots. This time – it’s 2008. Check out previous entries here.

Chapter 5: Indie Movies in our Temples of Gloom (A Wildcard Throw-Down)

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INDIE MOVIES… BEING SO…. INDIE. (image: Complex)

And it comes down to this.

The last magical slot for expanding nominations in 2008.

If the rest of the movies previously assigned to the extra Best Picture slots are playoff division winners (Box Office Division, Acting Division, Animated Division and Comedy Division), then this last slot is the wildcard play-in game.

Looking at guild support, all the usual suspects have already made it: Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and Benji B all wrapped all four major guild nominations (Producer, Director, Ensemble Acting, Writing). The other two with more than one guild nominations are The Dark Knight (DGA, PGA, WGA) and Doubt (SAG, WGA) which made the extra slots as described in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 of this speculative manifesto. All that’s left are the WGA nominees, but this guild is a poor predictor for nomination success (43% correlation of WGA nomination to Best Picture nomination). This leads us down an appropriate avenue – the wildcard movie in the wildcard slot.

Continue reading “And Then There Were Ten: 2008, The Indie Wildcard”