The Director’s Guild has announced their film nominations and we know just as much as we did before they were announced.
Their feature film nominations are:
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Peter Farrely – Green Book
Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
Adam McKay – Vice
And the first timers:
Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Carlos Lopez Estrada – Blindspotting
Matthew Heineman – A Private War
Boots Riley – Sorry to Bother You
Going back to 2013 you might think we have just learned that Peter Farrely or Adam McKay are getting an Oscar nomination (Cooper, Cuaron, and to an extent Lee, are pretty locked up at this point). You might think that because every year from 2013 on has seen exactly one DGA nom get replaced by the Academy Awards. They have been:
2017: Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards) replaced by Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
2016: Garth Davis (Lion) replaced by Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
2015: Ridley Scott (The Martian) replaced by Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
2014: Clint Eastwood (American Sniper) replaced by Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
2013: Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) replaced by Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Looking at this data one could surmise that all you have to do is pick one of Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) or Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) to replace one of Farrely and McKay. But then you look at 2012. A bizarre year for Directors indeed:
DGA:
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Tom Hooper (Les Mis)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Oscars:
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
So obviously anything can happen. If you are filling out nomination ballots make sure Cuaron and Cooper are on it and roll the dice. Coogler and Lanthimos have legitimate shots at nominations, just like Farrely and McKay.
