It’s that time of year again! Well, it’s early this year, but it’s time. Sunday February 9th, the Academy Awards are being held to honor the best (or most) in film from 2019 (with some of these actually releasing in 2020). Confusing? Maybe. To clear some confusion about the nominees and who is 100% guaranteed to win, we are breaking down every category below. It addition, we’ll add some dark horse candidates (with an outside chance at the win) and include our Talkie Talk Winner from from our recent podcast. And away we go!
Best Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister
Talkie Talk Winner: A Sister
David’s Winner: The Neighbors’ Window, this is the only short film here in English, which may help with a lesser seen category.
David’s Dark Horse: Brotherhood
TJ’s Winner: The Neighbors’ Window, This one could be any of the 5. I took the one about the struggles of parenthood.
Best Documentary Short
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Talkie Talk Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
David’s Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), definitely has the best title and sounds like it manages both to be topical and entertaining at the same time.
David’s Dark Horse: St. Louis Superman
TJ’s Winner: Learning to Skateboard…, Women taking charge as best they can. Voters love this stuff.
Best Animated Short
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister
Talkie Talk Winner: Memorable
David’s Winner: Hair Love, feels like the most personal movie here, and has the best backstory for how it was created.
David’s Dark Horse: Kitbull
TJ’s Winner: Hair Love, An excellent film that who watched the shorts won’t be able to not vote for.
Best International Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Talkie Talk Winner: Parasite (South Korea)
David’s Winner: Parasite (South Korea), because it’s Parasite and the rest of the movies aren’t.
David’s Dark Horse: The category dissolving before a winner is announced. Nothing but Parasite is possible.
TJ’s Winner: Parasite, The easiest of easy picks.
Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
Talkie Talk Winner: Honeyland
David’s Winner: For Sama, which isn’t the favorite currently, but sounds like the most heartbreaking and personal of these heavy docs.
David’s Dark Horse: American Factory
TJ’s Winner: American Factory, Voters will hold out hope that the Obamas show up till the last second.
Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Talkie Talk Winner: Toy Story 4
David’s Winner: Klaus, going against Pixar seems foolish, but the Academy rarely goes for sequels (only one going to Toy Story 3), and the franchise seems well-rewarded. Going with the one that cleaned up at the Annie Awards and was a Netflix Christmas movie released around Christmas.
David’s Dark Horse: Toy Story 4
TJ’s Winner: Toy Story 4, Feeling less and less confident about this pick. So hard to bet against Pixar.
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Talkie Talk Winner: Avengers: Endgame
David’s Winner: 1917, between this and The Irishman, a good bet is to go with a Best Picture winner, and I think the explosions in 1917 are faring better in public than The Irishman’s de-aging technology (which maybe the actors in the Academy might be freaked out by?). Marvel has also never won in this category, why now?
David’s Dark Horse: The Irishman
TJ’s Winner: 1917, Avengers is a possibility here. But I think 1917 gets a ton of votes in categories outside Best Pic and Screenplay due to everyone feeling bad for making Mendes think he was going to win Best Picture.
Best Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Talkie Talk Winner: Ford v Ferrari
David’s Winner: Ford v Ferrari, because cars sound cool.
David’s Dark Horse: 1917
TJ’s Winner: 1917, Boom!
Best Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Talkie Talk Winner: Ford v Ferrari
David’s Winner: 1917, because explosions and bullets.
David’s Dark Horse: Ford v Ferrari
TJ’s Winner: 1917, Boom Boom!
Best Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4)
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
“I’m Standing with You” (Breakthrough)
“Into the Unknown” (Frozen II)
“Stand Up” (Harriet)
Talkie Talk Winner: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
David’s Winner: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Rocketman), the smartest move in the awards race was Elton John telling the Golden Globes that it was the first time him and Bernie Taupin received an award together – when you get a chance to give Elton an award, you do it.
David’s Dark Horse: “Stand Up” (Harriet)
TJ’s Winner: Rocketman, Kind of like the Obama thing, except you get one of the best performer/song writer combos ever on stage together to accept.
Best Score
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)
Talkie Talk Winner: Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
David’s Winner: Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir), although pretty close with Thomas Newman for this one (and his Susan Lucci-esque 17th nomination without a win), the story about using the score on-set to help Joaquin’s performance is too good.
David’s Dark Horse: 1917 (Thomas Newman)
TJ’s Winner: Joker, 2 for 11. How about that?
Best Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Talkie Talk Winner: Parasite
David’s Winner: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, tempted to go with my heart and Parasite here, but think there’s enough older members of the Academy who were there in 1969 Hollywood to get the nostalgia tingles with Once Upon a Time.
David’s Dark Horse: Parasite
TJ’s Winner: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, This is what they give QT for picking Parasite in screenplay
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Talkie Talk Winner: Bombshell
David’s Winner: Bombshell, the winning team behind The Darkest Hour make Charlize Theron almost unrecognizable and turn John Lithgow into a fat-suit Gargamel.
David’s Dark Horse: 1917
TJ’s Winner: Bombshell, I still don’t think that was Charlize.
Best Costume Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Talkie Talk Winner: Jojo Rabbit
David’s Winner: Jojo Rabbit, almost went with the typical period costumery of Little Women, but think Jojo has some steam to pick up a craft award or two, and Yorkie’s paper soldier uniform is too much.
David’s Dark Horse: Little Women
TJ’s Winner: Little Women, This is what they give Gerwig for snubbing her in Director. And also for giving screenplay to TW.
Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Yang Jin-mo)
Talkie Talk Winner: Parasite (Yang Jin-mo)
David’s Winner: The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker), it seems like it would be the most editing to turn Marty’s presumably 150-hr movie into a nice, digestible 3.5 hr Netflix fick.
David’s Dark Horse: Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker)
TJ’s Winner: Parasite, I don’t think Ford v Ferrari wins anything, but this is probably it’s best shot.
Best Cinematography
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
1917 (Roger Deakins)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
Talkie Talk Winner: The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
David’s Winner: 1917 (Roger Deakins), because Deakins.
David’s Dark Horse: The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
TJ’s Winner: 1917, Deakins did pretty cool thing.
Best Original Screenplay
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
1917 (Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won)
Talkie Talk Winner: TIE, Parasite (Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won) / Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach).
David’s Winner: Parasite (Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won), winning the WGA here helps, and it seems like the industry loves Director Bong – also a masterclass in tone management.
David’s Dark Horse: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
TJ’s Winner: Parasite, QT wins this with Once any other year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips and Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
Talkie Talk Winner: Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
David’s Winner: Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi), could be Gerwig for her wonderful modern take on Little Women, but think this film is more beloved than predictors assume, and Taika would be a delight to give a speech onstage.
David’s Dark Horse: Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
TJ’s Winner: Jojo Rabbit, “Oh, hey Jojo!” Watch out for Gerwig here.
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Talkie Talk Winner: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
David’s Winner: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) because he’s won everything this year.
David’s Dark Horse: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
TJ’s Winner: Brad Pitt, It’s nice to be able to give a ‘career Oscar’ to someone who actually deserves it.
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Talkie Talk Winner: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
David’s Winner: Laura Dern (Marriage Story) because she’s won everything this year.
David’s Dark Horse: Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
TJ’s Winner: Laura Dern, It’s nice to be able to give a ‘career Oscar’ to someone who actually deserves it.
Best Lead Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Talkie Talk Winner: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
David’s Winner: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) because he’s won everything this year.
David’s Dark Horse: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
TJ’s Winner: Joaquin Phoenix, It’s nice to be able to give a ‘career Oscar’ to someone who actually deserves it.
Best Lead Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Talkie Talk Winner: Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
David’s Winner: Renée Zellweger (Judy) because she’s won everything this year. Although this is the one that may be susceptible to an upset.
David’s Dark Horse: Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
TJ’s Winner: Renée Zellweger, They’ve always loved voting for her and this might be one of here best performances, especially in a meh movie.
Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Talkie Talk Winner: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
David’s Winner: Sam Mendes (1917), it’s the technical achievement of this bunch and predicting a La La Land / Moonlight type respect for the craft of MOST directing, while hoping for a different outcome in Best Picture (hopeful of me).
David’s Dark Horse: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
TJ’s Winner: Sam Mendes, The Best Pic/Director split strikes again.
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Talkie Talk Winner: Parasite
David’s Winner: Parasite, typically I employ the “What’s the disappointing thing that could happen” strategy to Best Picture, which would go to the admittedly entertaining 1917 (which does have DGA and PGA), but that feels like a film that’s admired while Parasite seems like a film that is loved. I’m voting for love.
David’s Dark Horse: 1917
TJ’s Winner: Parasite, The combo of winning SAG and WGA gives this pick legs. Also, a movie people actually liked and wasn’t just technically brilliant.
