State of the Race: Guild the Lily

There are multiple ways to predict the Academy Awards – come January 22nd, we’ll find out which way was most correct. Until then, you could go with your gut, you could check out sites that aggregate bettings odds on the favorites (thank you GoldDerby for existing!), and you could also go with what the guilds say.

Making a movie requires interfacing with many unions in the multi-faceted levels of production – these unions (for acting, directing, writing, costume design, etc.), who also describe themselves as guilds, all annually reward their peers across the industry for the best in show. The convenient aspect of these guilds is they announce their nominees and/or winners before the Oscar nominations come out. The other obvious convenient aspect of these guilds is they actually overlap with the members of the Academy that vote for the Oscar awards.

You can trust your gut, or give GoldDerby more page views, or you can read on and see what these guilds are trying to tell us about nominations. So far, the following guilds have announced nominees:

• SAG = Screen Actors’ Guild (for acting!)
• PGA = Producers’ Guild of America (for producing movies)
• ACE = American Cinema Editors (editing movies)
• ADG = Art Directors’ Guild (for production design)
• ASC = American Society of Cinematographers (for cinematography)
• WGA = Writers’ Guild of America (for original and adapted screenplays)
• CAS = Cinema Audio Society (for sound mixing)
• CDG = Costume Designers’ Guild (for designing costumes)
• DGA = Directors’ Guild of America (for directing)
• BAFTA = British Academy Film & Television Awards (British Oscars – not quite a union guild, but some overlap for British members of the Academy)
• MUAHS = Makeup Artists and Hairstylists (makeup and hairstyling)
• VES = Visual Effects Society (for visual effects)
• MPSE = Motion Picture Sound Editors (for sound editing)

Read on if you want some breakdowns of the guilds, how well they predict either Best Picture, or their respective category, how last year’s nominees fared, and a prediction for how this year’s guild class will fare at the Oscars come January 22nd.

SAG (Best Cast)

• First Awarded: 1995
• Number of Nominees: 5
• Best Picture Prediction: 68% / After 2008 = 76%
• Average BP Nominees: 3.4 / After 2008 = 3.8
• Last Year: 3/5 nominated (Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards in – The Big Sick, Mudbound out)
• 2018 Nominees: A Star Is Born, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians

The equivalent category SAG has for Best Picture is Best Cast. If we assume somewhere from 3 to 4 picks here make it to BP, then the activity is fairly simple: A Star is Born, Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman are in, and… it turns out that the industry loves Rhapsody (as detailed by other guild love further in the post). CRA is a super fun movie, but I’d replace it with The Favourite, which got three nominations, with is the highest without getting Best Cast. Or you could use Vice if you please (had two SAG nominees and other guild support).

• In: A Star is Born, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody (4)
• Out: Crazy Rich Asians (1)
• Substitute: The Favourite or Vice (1)

SAG (Lead Actress)

• First Awarded: 1994
• Number of Nominees: 5
• Lead Actress Prediction: 83%
• Average LA Nominees: 4.1
• Last Year: 4/5 nominated (Frances McDormand, Saoirse Ronan, Sally Hawkins, Margot Robbie in – Judi Dench out)
• 2018 Nominees : Emily Blunt, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Melissa McCarthy

Good rule of thumb we’ll see in all the SAG acting categories is pick 4 of the 5 they give you, and make an educated guess on the last one – last year, Dench was replaced by Meryl Streep in The Post, which was a late-breaking movie released in January 2018 (essentially, SAG didn’t get screeners to see the movie widespread yet). There’s a good chance this grouping is the final five. I think Close, Colman and Gaga are entrenched – McCarthy and Blunt are in movies that are fading in other support (Poppins didn’t do killer box office for Disney, and Can You Ever Forgive Me? is unlikely to show up in multiple categories besides supporting actor and screenplay). The wild card here is Yalitza Aparicio for Roma, who was an unprofessional actor (a teacher in Mexico), and may not have been eligible for the SAG union. As it stands today, I’d go with this final five. It happens from time to time – 23 times since 1994 from the four acting categories.

• In: Blunt, Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy (5).
• Out: None.
• Substitute: None.

SAG (Lead Actor)

• First Awarded: 1994
• Number of Nominees: 5
• Lead Actor Prediction: 83%
• Average LA Nominees: 4.1
• Last Year: 4/5 nominated (Timothee Chalamet, Gary Oldman, Daniel Kaluuya, Denzel Washington – in, James Franco – out)
• 2018 Nominees: Bradley Cooper, John David Washington, Rami Malek, Viggo Mortensen, Christian Bale

Same rule for lead actor from lead actress. Last year, the Academy bounced out James Franco (riding a wave of controversy) for Daniel Day-Lewis (quite an improvement). Similar to Meryl, DDL was in a late releasing movie not widely seen at the time of the guild awards. To me, there’s less of a chance that this is the final five – I think J.D. Washington is left out. maybe I’m showing a personal bias, but I’m hoping that Ethan Hawke for First Reformed could make it here, with a non-controversial wave of critics’ awards under his arm already.

• In: Cooper, Malek, Mortensen, Bale (4)
• Out: Washington (1)
• Substitute: Hawke (1)

SAG (Supporting Actress)

• First Awarded: 1994
• Number of Nominees: 5
• Supporting Actress Prediction: 76%
• Average SA Nominees: 3.8
• Last Year: 3/5 nominated (Allison Janney, Laurie Metcalf, Mary J. Blige – in, Holly Hunter and Hong Chau – out)
• 2018 Nominees: Emily Blunt, Margot Robbie, Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz, Amy Adams

Supporting gets a little less predictive – recommendation would be to knock two of the five out, and keep your favorite/most-entrenched three remaining. Last year, Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) was a late-breaker and Octavia Spencer (Shape of Water) was the momentum-rider for that eventual Best Picture-winner. I don’t see Blunt being a double-nominee her first go-around (here for A Quiet Place), and there is zero other support for Mary Queen of Scots for Robbie. Dominating other awards and also playing a late-breaking role in If Beale Street Could Talk is Regina King (who could actually win it all). I would add in another movie that is likely to receive many technical awards, so it will likely be seen – First Man and Claire Foy. She’s well liked an a recent Emmy winner.

• In: Adams, Weisz, Stone (3)
• Out: Robbie, Blunt (2)
• Substitute: King, Foy (2)

SAG (Supporting Actor)

• First Awarded: 1994
• Number of Nominees: 5
• Supporting Actor Prediction: 75%
• Average SA Nominees: 3.8
• Last Year: 4/5 nominated (Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins, Woody Harrelson, Sam Rockwell – in, Steve Carell – out)
• 2018 Nominees: Sam Elliott, Timothee Chalamet, Adam Driver, Richard E. Grant, Mahershala Ali

Recommending somewhere from 3-4 here. Last year, Steve Carell got in for Battle of the Sexes, but was replaced by literal substitute Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), who was also a late breaker. Everyone here seems strong here, except for Chalamet to me – if he gets in here, that will be the only nomination Beautiful Boy gets (unless the Sampha original song gets nominated), while the rest here have Best Picture support or nominations elsewhere for their movies. If I was being conservative, I’d keep this five – if not, I’d toss a flier to industry-darling Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther because Wakanda, and he was neglected for Fruitvale Station and Creed. Also, if you think Black Panther has a chance to win, only two Oscar winners in the last thirty years have won without a single acting nomination (2003, LOTR: Return of the King, although Ian McKellen was nominated for the first LOTR, and 2008: Slumdog Millionaire). Either Jordan or recent winner Sam Rockwell for Vice in an albeit small role – playing a real person, in the golden glow of winning, and in a movie that has guild support.

• In: Elliott, Driver, Grant, Ali (4)
• Out: Chalamet (1)
• Substitute: Jordan or Rockwell (1)

PGA

• First Awarded: 1989
• Number of Nominees: 10 (after 2008)
• Best Picture Prediction: 77%
• Average BP Nominees: 5.1 / After 2008 = 7.8
• Last Year: 7/11 nominated (Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards – in, The Big Sick, I Tonya, Molly’s Game, Wonder Woman – out)
• 2018 Nominees: A Star Is Born, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, A Quiet Place, Roma, Vice

The Producers’ Guild of America is interesting in that it projects a Top 10 for best picture, where no other guild does. It is also interesting because it represents a branch of the Academy that does not have a branch-specific award (i.e., Directors’ branch has a Directing Award, Costume Design branch has a Costume Design award). Also interesting (so much interesting) is that the PGA field supplies around 7-8 of the Oscar nominees each year. From this recent batch, I would assume 8 of the 10 get in – two films I would say are vulnerable are less desirable genre entries like rom-com Crazy Rich Asians (here because of the great box office success, which is key for producers) and horror-thriller A Quiet Place (great box office from a relatively small budget).

If I were betting, I would maybe say that this 8 is the final field, but adding one for either First Man or If Beale Street Could Talk, both had big hype from the two 2016 Golden Boys Chazelle and Jenkins that are just not hitting guilds the race in full-stride.

• In: A Star Is Born, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, Vice (8)
• Out: Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place (2)
• Substitute: First Man or If Beale Street Could Talk (2)

ACE Eddies

• First Awarded: 1961
• Number of Nominees: 10 (5 for Comedy, 5 for Drama – after 1998)
• Best Editing Prediction: 70% (Drama) / 14% (Comedy)
• Best Picture Prediction: 54% / After 2008 = 56%
• Average Editing Nominees: 3.6 (Drama) / 0.7 (Comedy)
• Average BP Nominees: 3.3 / After 2008 = 5.7
• Last Year: 5/10 nominated (Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, Molly’s Game, The Post, The Shape of Water – Drama / Baby Driver, Get Out, I Tonya, Lady Bird, Three Billboards – Comedy)
• 2018 Nominees: Drama – BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born / Comedy – Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Deadpool 2, Vice

What is editing? Oscar statisticians tell you it’s one of the ways to tell where the actual top five films stand out of top 9 or 10 total (that, and best director). Only exceptions are especially flashy or inventive instances (think Baby Driver, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) or incredible action pieces (The Matrix, The Bourne Ultimatum, The Dark Knight, etc.). Mostly, if people like the movie, they’ll also like it in editing, regardless of actual editing acumen. The other thing about the ACE Eddies is that it differentiates comedy versus drama, and this puts the heavy influence for drama films to eventually be nominated for editing or Best Picture. In the last five years (since 2013), there have only been 2 Best Editing nominees that didn’t come from ACE (2015 – Spotlight, 2013 – Dallas Buyers Club).

Another rule of thumb from this stands to be 3-4 from best ACE Eddie Drama, and maybe 1 or 2 from ACE Eddie Comedy (although last year was an exception, with 3 of the 5 coming from comedy). The one comedy I would recommend would be Vice – same team was nominated for The Big Short. In Drama, would recommend all but Bohemian Rhapsody (BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born). First Man has serious action – Roma is the feat, having been editing by the director/cinematographer Cuarón, A Star is Born is the juggernaut (like the movie, like it in editing). Last one would be Rhapsody versus Klansman – BlacKkKlansman does mix in different media so I would give it the slight edge. Or Green Book may make it in here. Who knows.

• In: BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born, Vice (5)
• Substitute: Zero (10 nominees here for 5 spots).
• Out: Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Deadpool 2 (5).

ASC

• First Awarded: 1986
• Number of Nominees: 5
• Best Cinematography Prediction: 77%
• Best Picture Prediction: 52% / After 2008 = 66%
• Average Cinematography Nominees: 3.9
• Average BP Nominees: 2.7 / After 2008 = 3.4
• Last Year: 5/5 nominated (Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Mudbound, Blade Runner 2049)
• 2018 Nominees: Roma, First Man, Cold War, A Star is Born, The Favourite

What is cinematography? Versus direction, versus editing, who does what for the final product on the screen? Don’t know – seems like the most striking movies make it here, the ones that could make the best background image for your computer. In the last ten years, the Best Cinematography nominees went 5/5 from the ASC award nominees, including the last two years – in fact, the last year less than 4 ASC nominees made it was 2006.

In this group, there are two returning ASC nominees – Linus Sandgren (winner for La La Land), and Darren Aronofsky’s cinematographer Matthew Libatique here for A Star is Born (previously nommed for Black Swan). A previous Oscar nominee who missed ASC is Łukasz Żal, from the Polish foreign language entry Cold War (was nominated for Ida, which won Foreign Language that year). The Favourite has former New Orleans Saints Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan nominated for cinematographer (jk, just same name). Ryan came up with British filmmaker Andrea Arnold, and has been involved in independent English cinema mostly. And Cuarón is nominated as a jack of all trades for Roma, where he also did craft services.

Outside the guild looking in is James Laxton for If Beale Street Could Talk, which seems to be missing every guild. Also absent, with a chance, is last year’s groundbreaking nominee for Mudbound, Rachel Morrison, who is the director of photography for Black Panther. I’d guess one of these doesn’t make it but it’s hard to pick which one.

• In: Roma, First Man, A Star is Born, The Favourite (4)
• Out: Cold War (1)
• Substitute: If Beale Street Could Talk (1).

DGA

• First Awarded: 1948
• Number of Nominees: 5 (since 1970)
• Best Director Prediction: 74%
• Best Picture Prediction: 83% / After 2008 = 98%
• Average Director Nominees: 3.9
• Average BP Nominees: 3.8 / After 2008 = 4.9
• Last Year: 4/5 nominated (Dunkirk, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Get Out– in, Three Billboards – out)
• 2018 Nominees: A Star is Born, Roma, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, Vice

DGA has the best prediction for Best Picture – the movies here are almost definitely getting to Best Picture, since there has only been one DGA nominee since 2009 to not make it (David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo). As far as the directing field – it can get crazy. Averaging about 3-4 nominees, the DGA has only yielded less than 3 Director nominees only 11 times since 1948, and only once since 1965 – the weird year of 2012, where Ben Affleck won DGA for Argo but was not nominated for the Oscar, and former best director Oscar winners Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) also didn’t get nominated – replaced by outsider picks Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) and Michael Haneke (Amour) and multi-nominate David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook). What a year. And from the statistics, what an outlier year.

For Best Picture, we can safely assume all these movies will be nominated for best overall (98% is hard to argue with, since the field expanded). For Best Director, last year we saw 4 of the 5 translate, with Three Billboards replaced by the late-releasing Phantom Thread. Looking at the momentum for the 2018 nominees, looks like Roma (Alfonso Cuarón), Star (Bradley Cooper), and BlacKkKlansman (the never nominated Spike Lee) are entrenched – the divisive Vice (Adam McKay) will probably stay, due to the unique directing style it has, and the previous pedigree, which was lauded for the Big Short. Green Book (Peter Farrelly) seems like more of a writers’ movie than a directors’ movie, but it may stay on to the Oscar 5. The thing to consider is that the DGA is a rather large, popular-leaning group, and the directors’ branch that vote for the Best Director Oscar comes up with snootier, more snobby picks (like the Zeitlin’s and Haneke’s of the world).

The fun choice (for me) would be to replace Farrelly with Yorgos Lanthimos from The Favourite. Awarding Lanthimos seems like a snootier thing to do. So I’m doing it.

• In: Roma, A Star is Born, BlacKkKlansman, Vice
• Out: Green Book
• Substitute: The Favourite

WGA

• First Awarded: 1984
• Number of Nominees: 5 Original / 5 Adapted
• Best Screenplay Prediction: 71% Original / 69% Adapted
• Best Picture Prediction: 44% / After 2008 = 53%
• Average Screenplay Nominees: 3.6 Original / 3.5 Adapted
• Average BP Nominees: 4.4 / After 2008 = 5.3
• Last Year: 9/10 total nominated (Original: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water– in, I Tonya – out, Adapted: Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound – in)
• 2018 Nominees: Original –Eighth Grade, Green Book, A Quiet Place, Roma, Vice / Adapted – BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star is Born.

First thing to know for film writing awards is there are two different categories – Original screenplay and Adapted screenplay. The second thing to know – is that the distinction between the two can be arbitrary, and can change from WGA classification to Oscar classification. Case in point, Whiplash (2014) or Moonlight (2016) – both were Original Screenplay nominees for WGA but had to change categories to Adapted for Oscar.

Another thing to know is that there are some pieces that are excluded from WGA consideration that end up as nominees. For example, Pixar (and most animation studios) along with most foreign production studios do not join the WGA – fun weirdos like Quentin Tarantino and some writer-directors like Alejandro González Iñárritu have chosen not to join WGA (and are in the DGA solely). What this means for this year: Sorry to Bother You, Hereditary,  Isle of Dogs, Stan and Ollie, The Death of Stalin, Cold War, Shoplifters,  Capernaum, Leave No Trace, Incredibles 2 and The Favourite are all not eligible for WGA. From the ineligible screenplays, the one that has been hitting other precursors for writing is The Favourite in Original. My thought is that Favourite knocks out A Quiet Place, and that’s the five.

For Adapted screenplay, we average 3-4 WGA noms in the Oscar category, but this grouping looks pretty good actually. Last year went 5/5, but it’s only been 100% in this category three times since 1986 when it started. If anything is vulnerable, it’s probably Beale Street (WGA is the only guild out of 12-13 possible that nominated the film), or maybe Black Panther – it’s only last year that the first comic book adaptation was nominated for screenplay (Logan). Taking either film’s place could be Damien Chazelle’s First Man (a previous screenplay and directing winner), Debra Granik’s Leave No Trace (her previous film Winter’s Bone, also nominated for writing), or Armando Iannucci’s Death of Stalin (previous film In the Loop also nominated for writing). Sike, I’m going to keep Adapted as is.

• In: Original – Eighth Grade, Green Book, Roma, Vice (4) / Adapted – BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star is Born (5)
• Out: Original – A Quiet Place (1) / Adapted – None.
• Substitute: Original – The Favourite (1) / Adapted – None.

BAFTA

• First Awarded: 1947
• Number of Nominees: 5 (since 1999)
• Best Picture Prediction: 79% / After 2008 = 91%
• Average BP Nominees: 3.9 / After 2008 = 4.5
• Last Year: 5/5 nominated (Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards – in)
• 2018 Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born

The shakiest case to be in this grouping – BAFTA is here for the overlap between the British members of the Academy – and the bonus is, they do nearly every single award that the Oscars do later. Talking here about Best Picture, BAFTA uses 5 nominees, and they do pretty good, with 91% of their nominees making it to the big field (last year went 5 for 5 as well). No drama here – we’ll probably see 5 for 5 this year as well.

• In: BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born
• Out: None.
• Substitute. None.

ADG

• First Awarded: 1996
• Number of Nominees: 5 in 3 categories (Contemporary / Fantasy / Period)
• Production Design Prediction: Contemp 5% / Fantasy 31% / Period 45%
• Best Picture Prediction: 35% / After 2008 = 40%
• Average Screenplay Nominees: Contemp 0.2 / Fantasy 1.5 / Period 2.2
• Average BP Nominees: 5.4 / After 2008 = 6.0
• Last Year: 5/15 total nominated (Three in Period / Two in Fantasy)
• 2018 Nominees: Period: Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, First Man, Roma / Fantasy: Black Panther, Fantastic Beasts 2, The House with a Clock in its Walls, Mary Poppins Returns, Ready Player One / Contemporary: A Quiet Place, A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asians, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, Welcome to Marwen

We have the most nominees for a guild per year – 5 nominees in three different sub-categories of production design: 1) Contemporary, 2) Fantasy/Sci-Fi, 3) Period. Of these categories, period has had the most success (averaging 2-3 nominees per year). Fantasy runs about 1-2 nominees – and contemporary… well… there have only been 3 since there were three subcategories (out of 65 chances). That said Contemporary has a good chance this year with either A Star is Born or Crazy Rich Asians. Period is strong with multi-guild nominees The Favourite, First Man and Roma. Fantasy would clean up the rest with the wonderful world of Wakanda in Black Panther, and the Cartoon Day-Glo England of Mary Poppins Returns. Best bet might be the three Period nominees, and the two Fantasy nominees mentioned.

• In: The Favourite, First Man, Roma, Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns (5)
• Out: Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Bohemian Rhapsody, Fantastic Beasts 2, The House with a Clock in its Walls, Ready Player One, A Quiet Place, A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asians, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, Welcome to Marwen (10)
• Substitute: None… I mean, we had 15 to choose from.

The latest guild to announce is MPSE (Sound Editing) which comes out January 21st, the day before the Oscar nominations. If you’re in a nominations pool, pro-tip would be to wait til MPSE announces if you wanna get nerdy on one of the sound categories. And the rule of thumb for what’s what in sound: sound editing is (supposedly) sound creation (think: explosions), whereas sound mixing is (probably) sound balancing (think: musicals). Having that logic doesn’t really seem to help, but, oh well.

As for CAS (Sound Mixing), MUAHS (Makeup/Hair), VES (Visual Effects) and the MPSE nominees… we’re close to 4000 words just on film guilds… Do the rest of the research yourself! I’m tired.

One last thing to help: the overall guild score (prior to MPSE) for films with more than one guild…

Good luck on your nominations predictions! Remember: “Build through the guild and you’ll filled to the hilt with milled silt.” If that’s what you want, then you’re good.