It starts earlier and earlier every year. Today, October 19th, the first film award nominations just came out – for the Gotham Independent Film Awards. These are given annually from the Independent Filmmaker Project (IFP) “the largest membership organization in the United States dedicated to independent film” and the awards were founded in 1991.
A group of people decide on the nominations and awards, limiting the scope to films that could be considered independent – big budget studio movies are ineligible. But independent film has landed in the race just about every single year now – previous to 2017 when The Shape of Water won, the last four years have been indie winners for Best Picture, for 12 Years a Slave (2013), Birdman (2014), Spotlight (2015) and Moonlight (2016).
Last year Call Me By Your Name and Get Out were nominated for both the Gotham and the Oscar. Also had correlation between for acting (Willem Dafoe, Daniel Kaluuya, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, Mary J. Blige, and Timothee Chalamet), screenwriting (The Big Sick, Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, Lady Bird) and directing (Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele).
Without further ado, here are the 2019 nominations:
BEST FEATURE:
The Favourite
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Madeline’s Madeline
The Rider
Likely Oscar Nom: The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk
Long-Shot Nom: First Reformed
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
Bisbee ’17
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Shirkers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Likely: Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Long-Shot: Minding the Gap
BEST ACTOR:
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
Likely: Richard E. Grant
Long-Shot: Adam Driver, Ben Foster, Ethan Hawke
BEST ACTRESS*:
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Regina Hall (Support the Girls)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Where is Kyra?)
* Special Gotham Jury Award to The Favourite ensemble of Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz
Likely: Glenn Close, The Favourite actresses
Long-Shot: Toni Collette
BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR:
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
Helena Howard (Madeline’s Madeline)
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Likely: <none really>
Long-Shot: Yalitza Aparicio, Elsie Fisher
BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR:
Ari Aster (Hereditary)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Jennifer Fox (The Tale)
Crystal Moselle (Skate Kitchen)
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
Likely: <none really>
Long-Shot: Bo Burnham, Boots Riley – both more likely for screenplay
BEST SCREENPLAY:
The Favourite
First Reformed
Private Life
Support the Girls
Thoroughbreds
Likely: The Favourite
Long-Shot: First Reformed, Private Life
FILMS WITH MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS:
3x – First Reformed, The Favourite (*includes special Jury Award)
2x – Support the Girls, Private Life, Eighth Grade, Sorry to Bother You, Hereditary, If Beale Street Could Talk, Madeline’s Madeline, Leave No Trace
SURPRISES:
Roma: Only one nomination for the Netflix Oscar heir-apparent, and no love for it in Best Picture (other apparent standout is the direction, but it’s hard to call Alfonso Cuaron a breakthrough director).
Eighth Grade: Elsie Fisher nominated and Bo Burnham acknowledged, but didn’t make it in Best Picture – this is the kind of movie that needs to ride a critical wave of applause to get into the big race.
First Reformed: Got exactly what it needed to keep alive in the Oscar race – everyone involved is a long-shot, but this was on a lot of critics’ Best Of lists for the first half of the year – hard to maintain that until January.
BlacKkKlansman: The only notice surprisingly was for Driver instead of the lead John David Washington, and did not show up in best feature or screenplay. This is one of the most successful indies of the year and will need to do better with other critics groups to stay afloat.
Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Placed 2nd in the audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) – but didn’t get into best picture, and didn’t get a notice for Melissa McCarthy. But half the normal slots are available here as Supporting and Lead are in the same category.
As far as a predictor, the Gothams lay claim more to being early than being accurate for Oscar, with only about 35% of the “Best Feature” films ending up in Best Picture, since 2009 (the year that the Best Picture lineup expanded from five nominees). So – enjoy the fun, as the campaign death-race to Oscar gold continues!
