Let’s paint a picture. It’s 2010, and you’re the Hollywood Foreign Press – you represent less than one hundred total critics throughout the globe and you’re throwing a party for movies and television in January. You’ve hosted a series of schmooze-fests where actors, directors and producers are laughing at all your jokes and taking the 2010-version of selfies with you. You feel pretty cool. Who should come to your party? You’re looking at the Comedy or Musical category you have at your party, and you’re thinking… how cool would it be if both Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie came?
To do so, you nominate The Tourist (a horrible 20% on Rotten Tomatoes), a globe-trotting non-comedy for Best Comedy or Musical, Depp for Best Comedic Actor, and Jolie for Best Comedic Actress. This is something you do, because your party is the Golden Globes and nothing matters.
The Tourist is an example to point out that the Globes can be fun but they don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things – again, there is no overlap for anyone that also votes in the Academy. There’s a saying that nominations can at least help with visibility, and that winning shows actual Oscar voters what your acceptance speech would be like, like a practice run. It also means that missing a Globe nomination doesn’t mean a nomination campaign is doomed.
That said – we’re breaking down the categories. Some omissions are the Foreign Language and Animated Film categories (since those still have pending shortlists forthcoming), and the Screenplay category, since they combine Original and Adapted. Also no music categories here (Score, Song) since the Academy has arcane rules of eligibility for original music. And no TV. Well, here it is. And nothing matters.
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Statistics: 58 Oscar nominees across 87 Globe nominees since 2000 (67%) – category averages about 3.4 Oscar nominees here. The eventual Oscar winner has been here since 2006 (Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine was missing). Last year had 3 of the 5 nominees – eventual winner Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals didn’t even get nominated.
Of Note: Plummer – wow, I kind of love this nomination. Imagine having like one week to completely shoot your role in a major motion picture and erase another actor’s performance. Now imagine you’re 88 years old. Amazing hustle in Plummer’s game.
Interesting Omissions: Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me – this category is kind of chalk from expectation with new whiz kid Plummer taking a second spot for Call Me – Stuhlbarg is supposed to have a smaller role than Hammer but one helluva Oscar clip.
Hopeful Nominations: All of these really.
Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Statistics: 67 Oscar nominees across 86 Globe nominees since 2000 (78%) – category averages about 3.9 Oscar nominees here. Oscar winner has been here since 2001 with two exceptions – 2002 Oscar Winner Zeta-Jones (Chicago) was in Lead, and 2015 Oscar Winner Alicia Vikander (Danish Girl) was here for Ex-Machina AND had Girl in Lead as well. Last year had all five eventual Oscar nominees.
Of Note: Janney, Metcalf, and Spencer seem to be entrenched at this point. Blige and Chau have been hit or miss in some awards shows. Mudbound has mixed reviews and is Netflix (a big hurdle), and Chau made it here without Downsizing making it in the Comedy field.
Interesting Omissions: Holly Hunter in The Big Sick – a personal favorite and a personal slight. She’s showed up elsewhere, but Big Sick was snubbed all over the map at the Globes.
Hopeful Nominations: Janney and Metcalf for sure, probably Spencer, and Blige/Chau are wildcards.
Actor – Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, The Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Statistics: 57 Oscar nominees across 85 Globe nominees since 2000 (67%) – category averages about 3.2 Oscar nominees here. Oscar winner has been here (as opposed to Comedy or Musical) every year since 2000 with two exceptions – Jamie Foxx (Ray) in 2004 and Jean Dujardin (The Artist) in 2011 – both were winners in the other actor category. Last year had 4 out of 5 Oscar nominees.
Of Note: Chalamet – Best Actor doesn’t typically nominate young actors, and at 21, he’d be 23 younger than the average Best Actor winner (average 44.4 y.o.), and 8 years younger than the youngest winner, Adrien Brody (The Pianist) at 29. Washington is also interesting, since his movie was not liked at all.
Interesting Omissions: Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) – he’s in a well-liked but under-seen movie and is making the rounds with interviews and appearances. But didn’t make it here.
Hopeful Nominations: All but Washington – Denzel’s on the edge
Actor – Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Statistics: Only 19 Oscar nominees across 86 Globe nominees since 2000 (19%) – category averages about 0.9 Oscar nominees here. Very rarely are winners in this category. Last year only had one nominee, Ryan Gosling (La La Land).
Of Note: Kaluuya – if he makes it to Oscar Best Actor, it would be my favorite nomination of the day. He’s incredible in Get Out and (besides Jordan Peele) the main reason the movie works at all – he’s showing up in other precursors, so that’s positive.
Interesting Omissions: Nothing really, maybe either Matt Damon role (Suburbicon, Downsizing) for the star power, or maybe anyone from The Meyerowitz Stories.
Hopeful Nominations: Kaluuya and maybe Franco.
Actress – Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Statistics: 54 Oscar nominees across 86 Globe nominees since 2000 (63%) – category averages about 3.2 Oscar nominees here. Besides last year when Emma Stone won for a musical, Oscar winner has been here most of the time, every year except 2012 (Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook, 2008 (where Kate Winslet won for Supporting at the Globes for The Reader), and 2005 (Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line). Last year had 3 out of 5 Oscar nominees.
Of Note: Williams – All the Money is a pretty new film, and I heard a story that Ridley Scott re-edited the movie so it would be specifically ready for a special Hollywood Foreign Press screening. So I don’t know about her, but I’m doubtful.
Interesting Omissions: Don’t laugh, but I had figured (before the surprise Michelle nomination) that the star-loving and internationally-friendly HFPA would nominate Israeli Gal Gadot in Wonder Woman, since Warner Bros is doing a big push for that, and the movie is a huge success, representing a win for female-powered films.
Hopeful Nominations: Hawkins/McDormand/Streep are locks with Chastain on the edge.
Actress – Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Statistics: 23 Oscar nominees across 85 Globe nominees since 2000 (27%) – category averages about 1.3 Oscar nominees here. Again, comedy side doesn’t do as well as Drama. It does feature a former Comedy/Musical Best Actress nominee directing a new Comedy/Musical Best Actress nominee (Lady Bird director Greta Gerwig in Frances Ha, 2013). Last year had 2 out of 5 Oscar nominees.
Of Note: Helen Mirren was nominated for a movie I’ve never heard of. When I first saw this, I thought this was the Project Greenlight movie for HBO. Now I know it’s about an older couple who drives an RV through America in an unforgettable journey. Huh.
Interesting Omissions: Salma Hayek for Beatriz at Dinner – albeit for a very small movie. It is a satire, showcasing the verbal flaying of a traditional white male power figure (timely) and features an acclaimed international actress. Figured this would be up their alley, but nah.
Hopeful Nominations: Ronan is a lock, Robbie could get in, others are unlikely (Dench is an older wildcard).
Director
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Statistics: 59 Oscar nominees across 88 Globe nominees since 2000 (67%) – category averages about 3.5 Oscar nominees here. Oscar winner has been here every year since 2000, except for 2002 with Roman Polanski’s upset win for The Pianist (Scorsese won then instead for Gangs of New York). Last year had 4 out of 5 Oscar nominees.
Of Note: Ridley Scott – Again, I kind of love the reason for the nomination. If the movie doesn’t look like a disaster, then everyone should be impressed with the degree of difficulty for Scott replacing an entire actor weeks before the premiere. Usually the opposite of Best Director – if it’s not that flashy and looks pretty seamless, then viewers should be wowed.
Interesting Omissions: Pair of writer/directors Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) and Jordan Peele (Get Out). Their films are both nominated for best movie in their categories, but no love here in direction. Especially surprising for Get Out, where the direction is much flashier. They usually nominate at least one “Comedy” in direction (for such laughers like The Martian and Nebraska).
Hopeful Nominations: Besides Scott, all are favorites.
Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Statistics: 67 Oscar nominees across 90 Globe nominees since 2000 (74%) – category averages about 3.9 Oscar nominees here. The last two Oscar winners (which were somewhat surprising) were also Golden Globe winners for drama. Last year, all five Globe nominees were nominated for Best Picture.
Of Note: Not much, these are all favorites to get in.
Interesting Omissions: The Florida Project – Willem Dafoe was nominated, and this movie is showing up on a lot of year-end lists, but it may be too small and too sad for HFPA. Maybe the “hidden homeless” outside Orlando’s shadow is a little too specific and unrelatable for the group.
Hopeful Nominations: All are.
Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Statistics: 23 Oscar nominees across 85 Globe nominees since 2000 (27%) – category averages about 1.4 Oscar nominees here. Pretty much when the Oscar winner doesn’t come from Drama, it’s a winner here, like for Birdman, The Artist and Chicago. Last year, only Comedy/Musical winner La La Land was nominated for Best Picture (but totally lost).
Of Note: Showman – such a Golden Globe move to include a musical, even one so heavily guarded from critics. Review embargo for The Greatest only lifts on the day of release, which is not the most promising sign. But it is 100% a musical, so it fits, I guess?
Interesting Omissions: Beauty and the Beast seems like a song and dance number made for this category. Also, still bummed about The Big Sick not being anywhere, let alone here. I guess the HFPA doesn’t care about immigrants or people in comas – joking of course… or do they?
Hopeful Nominations: Get Out and Lady Bird are pretty much in.
Multiple Nominations:
7 – The Shape of Water
6 – The Post, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
4 – Lady Bird
3 – All the Money in the World, Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, The Greatest Showman, I Tonya
2 – Battle of the Sexes, Coco, The Disaster Artist, Ferdinand, Get Out, Molly’s Game, Mudbound, Phantom Thread
