What is the National Board of Review? Wikipedia tells us that this is an organization, starting in 1908, made up of critics, film enthusiasts, academics, and filmmakers in the New York Metropolitan area. Despite having “National” in name, the Board is rather regional and has only about 100 members cast ballots for nominees and winners in various categories. So… in terms of overlap to what the Academy does, it’s limited, and shows more correlation than causation. The main point, in terms of the Oscar race, is that the NBR is the first critical body to announce its annual awards. And it’s always fun to have news.
Statistics
NBR has some special categories that we won’t go into too much – mainly since the Academy doesn’t have corollaries (like Breakthrough Actor or Director, or Best Ensemble). We also won’t go into the Original and Adapted Screenplay categories since the Academy has weird rules for what constitutes Original (last year, Moonlight was Adapted even though it was based on an unreleased play). Similarly, Foreign Language and Documentary are based on shortlists that come out ahead of time, and have their own restrictions.
That said, the NBR is special. It comes out with a major top ten list while also naming a top film, for eleven total movies. Since 2009 (when the Best Picture nominees expanded from five to ten films). In total, there has been 46 nominees from 85 nominees, for a prediction percentage of 54%. The NBR averages 5.75 Best Picture nominees per year, including 7 of the the 9 last year, so chances are at least four or five will make it from here. Additionally, since 2000, 17 NBR top films have lead to 15 nominees (88%) – only A Most Violent Year (2014) and Quills (2000) didn’t make it.
NBR also names one winner in Directing and Acting categories, so there aren’t NBR nominees. For Director, prediction percentage is a low 41% (since 2000), with last year’s winner, Barry Jenkins for Moonlight, a contender for Oscar too. Lead Actress is 76% (Amy Adams won last year but controversially didn’t make the Oscar field for Arrival), Lead Actor is 79% (Casey Affleck won the NBR and Oscar last year). Supporting Actor is very high with 88% (Jeff Bridges of Hell or High Water won last year) and Supporting Actress is lower at 53% (Naomie Harris in Moonlight won in 2016). As previously stated, we won’t dig into Foreign or Doc, but NBR the last two years had the winners at the Oscars. And only of note for Animated Feature is that the NBR winner was an Oscar nominee for Best Animated Feature for every year the Academy category existed. And it picked Kubo and the Two Strings last year, which ruled.
Nominations
Top Ten Films
The Post (Winner)
Baby Driver
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
Logan
Phantom Thread
Top Ten Independent Films
Beatriz at Dinner
Brigsby Bear
A Ghost Story
Lady Macbeth
Logan Lucky
Loving Vincent
Menashe
Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer
Patti Cake$
Wind River
Top Five Documentary Films
Jane (Winner)
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Brimstone & Glory
Eric Clapton: Life in 12 Bars
Faces Places
Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and The Rise of Isis
Top Five Foreign Language Films
Foxtrot (Winner), Israel
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
Frantz, France
Loveless, Russia
Summer 1993, Spain
The Square, Sweden
Director: Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD
Directorial Debut: Jordan Peele, GET OUT
Actor: Tom Hanks, THE POST
Actress: Meryl Streep, THE POST
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD
Adapted Screenplay: THE DISASTER ARTIST
Original Screenplay: PHANTOM THREAD
Best Ensemble: GET OUT
Breakthrough Performance: Timothée Chalamet, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Spotlight Award: WONDER WOMAN for Patty Jenkins and Gal Gadot
Best Animated Feature: COCO
Hopeful Oscar Nominations (in my opinion)
Best Picture – The Post, Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird maybe The Florida Project, Phantom Thread
Best Actor – Maybe Tom Hanks
Best Actress – Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor – Willem Dafoe
Best Supporting Actress – Laurie Metcalf
Best Director – Greta Gerwig
Of Note
The NBR really loves The Post. Deeply in love. Picture, Actor, Actress – since it’s released so late in the year, this is the first body to recognize the film that I expect to be a major player going forward.
Greta Gerwig for Best Director on Lady Bird – she tops main players in the top ten like Steven Spielberg, Paul Thomas Anderson and Alexander Payne, all Oscar nominees or winners in the past. I hope she makes it to the main Oscar field – she’s a delight.
Interesting Omissions
The Shape of Water – The Picture, The Director (Guillermo Del Toro), The Lead Actress (Sally Hawkins), and supporting performances from Octavia Spencer and Richard Jenkins are all expected to be nominated from the odds at Gold Derby prognostications. But maybe the “icky” crypto-romance freaked out NBR voters.
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri – from front runner status at TIFF to missing in the top ten here, and at the Gothams and Spirits. Maybe the movie is too confrontational for the 100 people casting votes for the NBR.
Darkest Hour is pure Oscar bait, with a World War II background and a transformative performance by Gary Oldman, directed by a former Oscar player in Joe Wright (who directed 2007’s Atonement). But none of that helped it in any NBR category.
Mudbound snubbed everywhere – I’m unsure how the rest of the critics and guilds are going to respond to a Netflix original.
The Big Sick doesn’t make it yet again, this time in any category. A major disappointment for me – I hope it gets in some places at the Oscars.
