Welcome to our Emmy predictions chat with your favorite awards-chasers, David and TJ. We’re splitting up the work into a couple different conversations to cover the major acting and series categories. In the end, we’ll tally up our predictions on July 13th, when the nominations are announced. Today we’re looking at lead acting in a Comedy and Drama.
TJ: Putting together these picks was tough.
David: It was… A lot of last years’ nominees were pretty deserving. And there are SO many new shows.
TJ: Yep. The streaming services continue to step up their game. Kick it off with Lead Actress in a Comedy Series?
David: Let’s kick it off with just that.
Best Lead Actress in a Comedy
Last Years Nominees:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) (Winner)
Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie)
Laurie Metcalf (Getting On)
Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer)
David’s Picks:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
Issa Rae (Insecure)
Allison Janney (Mom)
Sharon Horgan (Catastrophe)
TJ’s Picks:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
Issa Rae (Insecure)
Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie)
Kathryn Hahn (I Love Dick)
TJ: We share four picks in this one, You’ve got the eligible Lily Tomlin missing out this year. Any reason why?
David: First, let’s pour two out for our departing nominees from last year – Getting On was cancelled by HBO and Inside Amy Schumer didn’t air.
TJ: I drank mine already. LILY. TOMLIN.
David: I had Lily Tomlin in there as of yesterday, then I took her out. I just think Netflix has so many shows, and I don’t think Grace and Frankie is a priority. She does get the legend vote though.
TJ: Yeah, that’s why I have her. She also was great receiving the SAG Lifetime Achievement Award last year. Well, last awards season…
David: I dunno. She’ll probably be there, but maybe Jane Fonda cancelled her out? I just don’t care about Grace and Frankie… but that probably means she’ll get nominated.
TJ: Grace and Frankie don’t care about you! We share Julia Louis-Dreyfuss (Veep), Ellie Kemper (UKS), Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish), and Issa Rae (Insecure). Along with Tomlin I have Kathryn Hahn from I Love Dick. Don’t ask me why. I have no answer.
David: And I chose Sharon Horgan from Catastrophe for my Amazon streaming show. I’m taking a chance that that show takes a leap – last year, it got a writing nomination. I’m thinking acting and maybe more this year. I also have Allison Janney, the titular Mom in Mom. Why don’t you?
TJ: The Mom show just seems annoying. I’ve never watched it. And I love Allison Janney. Kathryn Hahn just seems like a trendy pick that the Emmy’s seem to do sometimes (think Metcalf last year).
David: Janney gets noms though. The past three years, she’s gotten 6 acting nominations. That’s barely possible. She jumps categories to lead this year. She’s inevitable, I think.
TJ: You are probably right…
David: I think you picked Hahn because her show title makes you giggle.
TJ: I don’t get your joke.
David: Allison Janney does.
TJ: Man, for some reason the role that stands out in my head for her is the super supporting role she has in Away We Go. That character is so obnoxious and funny.
David: She’s great in that… 8 years ago.
TJ: A lot of things were great 8 years ago…Like our country. *rimshot* What are we talking about? I forgot…
David: Sounds like a good time for the next category.
Best Lead Actor in a Comedy
Last Year’s Nominees:
Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent) (Winner)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth)
William H. Macy (Shameless)
Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)
David’s Picks:
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
William H. Macy (Shameless)
Ted Danson (The Good Place)
TJ’s Picks:
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)
Hank Azaria (Brockmire)
David: Everyone here is eligible to come back. We share three returnees in Tambor, Anderson and Ansari. You are keeping Middleditch. While I kept Macy.
TJ: I feel like my two picks different from yours are stretches… But I love what Azaria is doing on Brockmire.
David: He’s an Emmy favorite too. He won last year for Ray Donovan doing a guest role, and has 6 Emmys already. I actually like that pick. And we both added Donald Glover, who I think has a shot to win. Love Atlanta.
TJ: For real. To repeat from our supporting conversation I hope that show cleans up.
David: For my wildcard pick, I went with Ted Danson from The Good Place. [Spoiler alert] He has a fun character change in the finale that would be a good submission, and he’s legend status for Cheers.
TJ: Yeah, I think this category could be wide open. A few potential winners here. Big fan of Ansari and Anderson. Both those shows are great.
David: We both left off Will Forte. No offense, Will – you seem nice.
TJ: That show is soooo hard to watch.
David: And the title is false advertising. The pilot episode is incredible. But the more people are added to that show, the less interesting it got for me. I like Schaal on it though. She kooky.
TJ: Agree with all that.
Best LEAD Actress in a Drama
Last Year’s Nominees:
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) (Winner)
Claire Danes (Homeland)
Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)
Taraji P. Henson (Empire)
Keri Russell (The Americans)
Robin Wright (House of Cards)
David’s Picks:
Claire Foy (The Crown)
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Keri Russell (The Americans)
Carrie Coon (The Leftovers)
Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
Robin Wright (House of Cards)
TJ’s Picks:
Claire Foy (The Crown)
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Keri Russell (The Americans)
Carrie Coon (The Leftovers)
Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)
David: The only nominee last year who isn’t returning is Maslany, the surprise winner, due to a staggered schedule for Orphan Black (did not premiere during the nomination window). Despite that, you and I both only have two returning nominees – we both share Keri Russell and you have Viola Davis and I have Robin Wright.
TJ: It was so hard to leave Wright off.
David: It’s also so hard for me to actually watch House of Cards lately. Big decline, in my opinion, the last couple seasons. I feel like Netflix’s new flashier shows are lapping HoC now.
TJ: I haven’t picked it up since season 2. Sounds like a smart move. I really hope Carrie Coon can get in for The Leftovers.
David: Me too – I think we both have her in there on a wing and a prayer. She’s great in the finale though, got a lot of dialogue. It was hard for me to leave Viola Davis off, as a past winner (same for Claire Danes), but so much fresh blood in new shows – Foy in The Crown, Moss in Handmaid and ERW in Westworld. My most crowded field.
TJ: Those three newbies are almost certainties in my opinion.
David: I think Wood is the most vulnerable. I still don’t know how the awards will react to a heavy Sci-Fi/Western show. They don’t always go for fantasy/sci-fi. But it’s HBO.
TJ: And the show is great.
David: It just feels so long since the entire internet was obsessing about the mystery of Westworld.
TJ: It’s true. I picked her and you didn’t, but do you think people are tired of Viola after she won everything this past winter? Is that possible?
David: It’s possible… I hear that her show has gone off the rails a bit (which is how I ousted Taraji too)… I wouldn’t mind if she was back – she’s great. And we’d both be wrong which wouldn’t hurt me in our Emmy deathmatch.
Wait. Nevermind, you picked her. I know that because you just said it.
TJ: There he is…
David: I’m back.
TJ: Haha.
David: Someone must’ve hacked my computer. Moving on…
Best Lead Actress in a Drama
Last Year’s Nominees:
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) (Winner)
Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
David’s Picks:
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
Justin Theroux (The Leftovers)
TJ’s Picks:
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
David: Everyone here is eligible again.
TJ: We both gave Schreiber the boot.
David: I’ve seen maybe 10 minutes of Ray Donovan. I feel like I get it. Bye Liev.
TJ: You gave the boot to Kyle Chandler because your heart is clearly not full and you can’t see for shit.
David: Haha. I have pills for that heart thing! And I wear corrective lenses! I’m good…
TJ: AND you brought in Justin Theroux. Did you see the Leftovers finale? It was CRAZY.
David: Depends on your definition of crazy…
TJ: I made my predictions before the finale, which I thought was by far the best work Theroux had done in the series. So that pick would not piss me off at all.
David: Again, my crazy wildcard is a Leftovers pick – typical me this year. I thought about Chandler… Then didn’t. You seen any of Bloodline?
TJ: First episode about 3 weeks ago. I’ll pick it back up.
David: In my opinion, first season is pretty good. Second season is worse. Way worse. And I haven’t great things about the third. But the Emmys don’t necessarily just follow critics, so Bloodline could be back here.
TJ: Interesting. Sterling K. Brown is another newb we both brought in. He seems to be the clear favorite from This Is Us.
David: I’m happy for him – I should probably catch that show, I loved him in The People Vs. OJ.
TJ: Yeah, he was great. This Is Us looks like it wants to make me feel things. That scares me…
David: Feelings would break your Westworld programming.
TJ: 0000001000001100001110001111. That’s an actual quote from a show. Haha!
David: IF QUOTE = HAHA, REPLY = HAHA… Haha.
TJ: Nice…
David: Who do you think is the frontrunner in Lead Actor? I feel like anybody could win here too… Malek returns but people didn’t like Season 2 as much.
TJ: I would say Spacey finally if the show didn’t stop being awesome. I’m going to guess Odenkirk.
David: If Spacey wins, I swear I’m gonna throw up. But not before turning to the camera and saying something smug.
TJ: *David turns to Kodak disposable camera and says “here’s the thing about being on podcast…”
David: I like the Odenkirk pick.. But I almost dropped him from my list. He’s pretty low for me. I guess I’d go with Sterling. He plays John Us in This Is Us, right?
TJ: It’s actually Us Johnson.
David: Ah. I hope in the finale someone goes… “No, you don’t understand… THIS is us.” Fade to black. Assuming double thumbs pointed to chest, of course.
TJ: Or “This is US” or “This IS us.” I think I like the last one the best.
David: Good call. I kinda like picturing all the actors saying their show title. If Season 19 of House of Cards ends with Frank Underwood saying “Well this is a real house of cards we’ve gotten into…” I’ll be impressed.
TJ: That wrap it up? I looked hard for jokes…I couldn’t find any.
David: Then you better call Saul?
TJ: That’s a yes…
David: I feel like we’ve descended into madness and mutual hatred enough to call it a day. Thanks for chatting Emmys, TJ!
TJ: Anytime!
~fin~
Well this has been The Media By Us award-chasing the Emmys, looking at our definitive 100% correct predictions for Lead Acting. Join us next week when we talk about Best Comedy and Best Drama!
